As we’ve reached the midpoint of the season we finally have a large enough sample size to start to get a statistical understanding of where each team in Conference USA has impressed and disappointed.
This season I’ve really found myself missing former SB Nation contributor (now with ESPN) Bill Connelly’s advanced stats profiles. I thought these profiles were a great way to quickly see how good or bad a given team was, as well as get an understanding as to what a team’s defining characteristics were. Is State University a grind-it-out offense with a strong offensive line? Or are they a high-flying air attack on offense and as porous as a sponge on defense? Since these advanced stat profiles are no longer being updated, I decided to write a bit of code to create my own.
Looking at points and yardage totals can be misleading, as they can be heavily distorted by the level of competition, fluke plays, etc. These advanced statistics give us a more reliable lens through which to view the play-by-play success and efficiency of a team. Let’s see what we can gleam from the data, starting with the offense. If you’d like to read through the descriptions of each statistic in the tables please follow this link.
Jared Kalmus, @CFB_Data, @cfbfastR
The first thing that jumps out here is just how much better Western Kentucky’s offense is than the rest of the league per PPA or Predicted Points Added, one of the best metrics for measuring an offense’s ability to surpass expected yardage and scoring expectancy in any given down and distance scenario.
Anyone who has watched transfer quarterback Bailey Zappe and his connection with receiver Jerreth Sterns shouldn’t be surprised, but the gap between the Huskies Hilltoppers and the rest of the league is shocking. The UTSA Roadrunners out-dueled the Hilltoppers last Saturday, but their season-long PPA as the league’s second-best offense is still 32% lower than WKU! And the Hilltoppers have played an extremely challenging schedule!
Other teams in the conference are surpassing the Hilltoppers in various other categories other than success rate, where WKU reigns supreme. This shows that the offense is doing what it takes to keep drives moving, even when big time explosive plays may not be available. That’s exactly what the air raid is designed to do.
One puzzling outlier in the offensive statistics is Middle Tennessee’s success in closing out drives. The “Finishing Drives” stat looks at how many average points an offense walks away with whenever they cross the opponent’s 40 yard line. There’s typically a strong correlation between an offense’s overall performance and their ability to finish drives, but the Blue Raiders are actually the worst offense in Conference USA until they get to within the opponent’s 40, at which point they tend to end their drives with more points than any other team in the conference!
My gut immediately told me that Rick Stockstill must …….