It’s been a while since I’ve examined how the Denver Broncos measure up in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but looking at the standings now, it’s become clear which area has really been the biggest issue.
It’s easy to look at the offense, given the Broncos’ recent struggles, and the special teams, given the big returns and scores given up earlier this season.
However, DVOA reveals that the biggest problem this season is the area that lots of people assumed would be the Broncos’ strength: the defense.
Strength? No, Weakness
The Broncos currently sit 26th in defensive DVOA at 9.1 percent. Because defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative, the Broncos are not in a good position here.
The Broncos’ run defense is at -4.9 percent, but before you raise your eyebrows at that number, two things to keep in mind. First, the Broncos are ranked 26th overall in run defense, and second, 19 teams have a run defense DVOA of at least -10 percent.
In other words, the Broncos have been decent, but not good enough against the run. The Week 7 game against the Cleveland Browns was certainly a bad night for the run defense, but the Broncos have fared better in other games.
When it comes to pass defense, though, there’s no way to sugarcoat it: the Broncos are bad. They rank 24th overall with 18.7% DVOA.
While just 10 teams have negative pass defense DVOA, that’s to be expected in a passing league. However, you would expect that if the defense was truly the Broncos’ strength, the passing defense would be negative DVOA, not a high positive number.
Offense
What about the offense, then? While the offense has not been without its faults, it’s not the weakest link, either. The offense ranks 14th overall at 1.8 percent DVOA.
With that said, context is needed here. The Broncos’ DVOA number suggests the offense is strictly average. When you’re looking at great offense, you’re looking at teams who have at least 20 percent offensive DVOA. Right now, the L.A. Rams, Dallas Cowboys, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are those teams.
The Broncos are more comparable to the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and San Francisco 49ers, who all have between 1-to-2% offensive DVOA and would be considered average offenses at this point.
One can argue about what coaches or coordinators are doing with the offenses, but DVOA doesn’t measure whether or not a play call was a good idea. It’s about measuring how well a unit does each play, considering the down, distance, and time in the game.
Still, it’s clear that the offense, while not that bad, isn’t in a position to carry the load for the team.
Source: https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/broncos-defense-biggest-weakness-analytics